October 16, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of October 12, 2026. Markets turned more defensive this week as elevated inflation, renewed artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor concerns, and ongoing debt and financing risks prompted investors to rotate away from technology and other high-growth areas. U.S. equities finished mixed, with the Nasdaq facing the most pressure, while Europe benefited from its lower technology exposure and Asian markets broadly declined. Meanwhile, bonds gained on a safe-haven bid, and commodities were mixed.
Stock Index Performance
| Index | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| S&P 500 | -2.08% | 1.29% | 11.74% |
| Dow Jones Industrial | 0.37% | 0.75% | 7.87% |
| Nasdaq Composite | -4.80% | 0.28% | 12.09% |
| Russell 2000 | -3.05% | -4.81% | 9.65% |
| MSCI EAFE | 0.10% | -1.45% | 7.78% |
| MSCI EM | -5.80% | -4.25% | 15.02% |
S&P 500 Index Sectors
| Sector | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| Materials | 1.89% | 1.55% | 11.75% |
| Utilities | 1.82% | 2.64% | -1.29% |
| Industrials | -1.14% | -0.56% | 7.85% |
| Consumer Staples | 4.71% | 6.30% | 13.22% |
| Real Estate | 0.86% | -1.28% | 5.21% |
| Healthcare | 3.24% | 5.49% | 13.91% |
| Financials | 0.96% | -0.95% | 0.84% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -2.47% | 1.29% | -4.60% |
| Information Technology | -6.60% | 0.38% | 21.29% |
| Communication Services | -1.94% | -0.87% | 2.37% |
| Energy | 4.63% | 7.08% | 52.18% |
Fixed Income and Commodities
| Indexes and Commodities | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate | 0.85% | -0.09% | -1.65% |
| Bloomberg Credit | 0.87% | -0.29% | -1.82% |
| Bloomberg Munis | 1.33% | -0.42% | -2.22% |
| Bloomberg High Yield | -0.07% | -1.43% | 0.27% |
| Oil | 10.78% | -0.66% | 77.20% |
| Natural Gas | -3.39% | 7.61% | -15.60% |
| Gold | -0.86% | -2.48% | -3.74% |
| Silver | -6.42% | -9.63% | -20.58% |
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 10/16/26 @ 2:56 p.m. ET
Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
U.S. and International Equities
U.S. Equities: Major equity averages ended mixed after a cautious mood and rotation dynamics washed over Wall Street in an up-and-down week. The Nasdaq bore the brunt of the defensive shift, which began following headlines around China’s CXMT Corp making strides toward new and improved memory architecture alongside worries of elevated market expectations for AI-related companies. Ongoing debt and financing concerns exacerbated by the selloff in CoreWeave (CRWV) debt and equity, underwhelming guidance from Dutch chip equipment maker ASML (ASML), and reports of potentially slower revenue growth for Anthropic pressured chipmaker and AI-related names, which extended losses into an eighth straight session Friday. The S&P 500 fared better than its tech-heavy counterpart and remains just 2.2% below all-time highs, but the equity benchmark snapped a 53-session streak without a 1%+ decline en route to a weekly loss.
Also sapping risk appetite was a hotter than expected consumer inflation report, further leading investors to rotate away from the market’s tech leaders in favor of defensive-oriented pockets of the market. Elsewhere, this week brought the unofficial kick off for the third quarter earnings season, led by large and regional banks which broadly arrived mixed. Fixed-income trading revenue has generally disappointed, while investment banking fees have been uneven. On the positive side, loan growth, net interest margins, and credit quality have largely come in better than feared.
International Equities: Across the pond, Europe’s STOXX 600 delivered a healthy weekly advance in its largest outperformance over the S&P 500 since April 2025. The region was buoyed by its relatively lower exposure to technology and the AI trade as investors shunned related names, while earnings season optimism and a step up in calls for governments to rein in debt from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also aided sentiment. Plus, markets showed some relief early this week from reports that the European Union (EU) agreed to Beijing halving hybrid car exports and a rare earth materials deal — avoiding a full-blown trade confrontation with China.
In Asia, major equity exchanges broadly ended lower. After facing the worst of this week’s tech-led selling pressure, South Korea and Japan led a relief rally on Friday, but the KOSPI remained 14.5% below last Friday’s close as foreign outflows accelerated while the Nikkei finished 5.4% lower on the week. Taiwan also fell as investors unwound tech exposure and as Taiwan Semiconductor dropped after guidance failed to live up to expectations. Elsewhere, greater China was a relative outperformer. Homegrown tech enthusiasm was a positive, but stocks still struggled before receiving some support from likely national team buying late Thursday to help curb months’ long equity market weakness. Some reports also flagged short covering in Hong Kong.
Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets
Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index traded higher this week, logging back-to-back weekly gains for the first time since June. Treasuries were mixed for most of the week, but bond markets received help from a big Thursday rally that was chalked up to haven demand as investors searched for safety and opportunity outside of big tech stocks. Also in fixed income market news this week was the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) annual meetings in Bangkok. Among key takeaways were that while global markets have been adjusting to higher rates for longer, the IMF warned that the adjustment may not remain orderly. Elevated public debt, persistent inflation pressures, and growing AI-related corporate borrowing could leave bond markets vulnerable to a sharper repricing, even though the adjustment has been orderly thus far.
Public debt across advanced economies sits near levels last seen after World War II and is on track to exceed 100% of global GDP. High rollover needs leave markets exposed to any fiscal or inflation shock, and the IMF noted that unresolved deficits in several large economies are already contributing to higher term premiums. As we’ve noted in the past, AI-related issuance has grown rapidly and now accounts for a meaningful share of investment-grade supply. This corporate demand for longer-dated capital competes directly with government borrowing, adding incremental upward pressure on yields even if it is not yet the dominant driver.
The IMF is right to flag the risk of a disorderly repricing, but the rise in U.S. yields has so far shown few signs of broader market stress. Yet. High debt levels and competing capital demands leave less room for error, and Europe shows how quickly fiscal concerns can pressure spreads. Still, U.S. yields have risen to levels that increasingly compensate investors for these risks.
Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex edged higher over the last five days in fairly choppy, but rangebound trading. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose as Mideast supply concerns remained on the front burner after Washington confirmed that a Singapore-borne container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Renewed concerns for shipments were bullish for prices, as well as Saudi-Houthi tensions and EIA data that indicated U.S. inventories dropped by 8.6 million barrels last week (the largest decline since February). However, IEA agreements to release 100 million barrels of oil and reports that Washington is mulling looser sanctions staved off further upside pressure (the potential bill was blocked on Friday). Elsewhere, gold edged lower after reversing losses spurred by hot consumer inflation data bolstering rate hike odds before dollar weakness and a global flight to safety supported the yellow metal. Silver prices fell on the same dynamics, but failed to trim as much of its losses, while copper edged higher on strong AI demand takeaways this week and multiple mine strikes on the supply side.
Economic Weekly Roundup
Inflation Pressure Now Broader: Key takeaways from the September Consumer Inflation report:
- Inflation pressures are broadening beyond energy and are now filtering into other categories, including apparel and autos.
- Gas prices rose 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase in consumer prices. Of course, this category is also highly volatile and can reverse quickly.
- Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%, pushing the annual rate up to 2.6% from 2.4% the previous month. Monthly core inflation likely needs to consistently run in the 0.1% to 0.2% range before markets can reasonably conclude that inflation pressures are contained.
- Both new and used vehicle prices have risen for three consecutive months, reversing the trend from earlier this year. As the Middle East conflict continues, inflation pressures are becoming more widespread across other categories.
- The lack of housing construction will likely put upward pressure on rents, as available supply struggles to keep pace with demand. Shelter prices are up 3.2% from a year ago.
Bottom Line: Inflation pressures are broadening beyond energy, suggesting the last mile back to target could remain bumpy and keep interest rates elevated. The latest report complicates the Fed’s decision this month, as the road back to price stability is looking increasingly difficult to navigate.
The Week Ahead
The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:
- Monday: NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct)
- Tuesday: ADP Weekly Employment Change (Oct 3), Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity (Oct), Housing Starts (Sep), Building Permits (Sep preliminary), Pending Home Sales (Sep)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 16)
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 17), Continuing Claims (Oct 10), Leading Index (Sep), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (Oct)
- Friday: S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs (Oct preliminary), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report (Oct final), Kansas City Fed Services Activity (Oct), Bloomberg U.S. Economic Survey (Oct)
Important Disclosures
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.
Asset Class Disclosures –
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.
Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.
Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.
Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.
Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.
High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.
Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.
The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
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