LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of October 5, 2026. Stocks climbed to fresh record highs for the first time since August early in the week, but headlines grew choppy and tested the advance. Conflicting reports on possible U.S. strikes in the Mideast and renewed worries about artificial intelligence (AI) spending and revenues fueled a push-and-pull in markets, but stocks rose heading into the weekend to lock in a weekly gain. Overseas, European stocks finished flat amid French fiscal jitters and bond market volatility, while Asia-Pacific markets were mixed. Outside of equities, U.S. bonds snapped a five-week losing streak and crude oil rose continued to march higher on supply concerns.
Stock Index Performance
| Index | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| S&P 500 | 1.21% | 2.36% | 14.19% |
| Dow Jones Industrial | 1.09% | -1.24% | 7.64% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 0.72% | 4.31% | 17.83% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.76% | -3.76% | 13.28% |
| MSCI EAFE | -0.53% | -2.96% | 7.68% |
| MSCI EM | -1.40% | -2.57% | 21.95% |
S&P 500 Index Sectors
| Sector | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| Materials | 1.61% | -2.51% | 9.87% |
| Utilities | 3.88% | -3.10% | -3.11% |
| Industrials | -0.32% | -1.17% | 9.20% |
| Consumer Staples | 3.96% | 2.18% | 8.11% |
| Real Estate | 1.79% | -3.76% | 4.31% |
| Health Care | 2.87% | 2.85% | 10.37% |
| Financials | 2.42% | -3.74% | -0.01% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 3.13% | 1.54% | -2.17% |
| Information Technology | -0.11% | 5.75% | 30.05% |
| Communication Services | 0.79% | 4.07% | 4.42% |
| Energy | 3.71% | 0.68% | 45.56% |
Fixed Income and Commodities
| Indexes and Commodities | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate | 0.41% | -1.81% | -2.46% |
| Bloomberg Credit | 0.55% | -1.81% | -2.60% |
| Bloomberg Munis | -1.04% | -3.42% | -4.20% |
| Bloomberg High Yield | 0.14% | -2.04% | 0.29% |
| Oil | 0.00% | -5.14% | 58.67% |
| Natural Gas | 5.40% | 13.36% | -13.21% |
| Gold | 1.30% | -4.64% | -2.88% |
| Silver | 0.75% | -9.62% | -15.14% |
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 10/9/26 @ 3:25 p.m. ET
Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
U.S. and International Equities
U.S. Equities: Stocks rose over the first full trading week of October, scoring fresh record highs along the way. Entering the week, markets continued to debate weak breadth versus resilient indexes, rising Treasury yields versus easing October rate hike odds, and improved energy flows versus the lingering risk of fresh Mideast disruptions or hostilities. However, Wall Street’s mood was lifted Monday and Tuesday as crude prices were on the defensive, market breadth showed signs of improving, and Eurozone yields stabilized — supporting the first all-time high for the S&P 500 since August. Some upbeat takeaways from private tech fundraising plans also padded gains.
But the relative calm was challenged over the balance of the week as catalysts grew choppy. Markets faced a push-and-pull in headlines as reports of potential U.S. strikes in the Mideast were later denied while a strong 10-year auction and a weekly gain in bonds aided risk appetite. Meanwhile, early-week support from tech shares faded as circular spending concerns coincided with lofty hopes for some Asian chipmaker earnings, and worries of weaker-than-anticipated revenue for OpenAI briefly dented sentiment before the private AI leader reaffirmed prior expectations. As volatile headlines subsided Friday, stocks tracked a healthy weekly gain as attention turned to the upcoming start of earnings season.
International Equities: The European STOXX 600 finished flat over the last five days after equities rose and fell alongside sovereign bond prices. Stocks gained early in the week after leading French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen proposed a slimmer deficit. But gains were reversed Thursday as rising global yields and French fiscal jitters collided with a slide in bank shares fueled by macro uncertainty around economic growth, yields, and monetary policy. Nonetheless, regional benchmarks ended the week on a positive note, rallying back to the flatline Friday as rising crude prices and regional bond market volatility eased.
Major Asia-Pacific exchanges ended mixed this week amid holiday-thinned trading. Taiwan’s Taiex led gains with sentiment broadly buoyed by several strong sessions for tech shares in New York, despite trimming gains after Taiwan Semiconductor’s 51% jump in sales failed to excite investors. Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei also outperformed on U.S. tech gains, while the Topix eked out a slight gain as markets digested an upcoming reduction and reshuffle of constituents. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s healthy advance was supported by reports that AI startup Moonshot is aiming for a public offering early next year, while South Korea was weighed down by Samsung’s nine-fold rise in operating profits falling short of lofty expectations. Mainland China declined in a two-day week, but trimmed loses Friday on speculation that authorities stepped in to curb recent selling pressure.
Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets
Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index traded higher. The 10-year yield pushed to its highest level since 2002 early in the week, but buyers stepped in to snap a string of five straight weekly losses. One good week does not end a bear market, but the character of trading seems like it may have changed.
The cure for high yields is high yields, and this week’s 10-year auction may have been the turning point. Treasury sold $39 billion at 5.300%, the highest auction yield since November 2000, and still cleared below where the market expected (that is, Treasury had to pay less than what markets were expecting). Objectively, this was a stellar auction, particularly given the recent concerns over longer-maturity Treasuries. That is real money buying, not Wall Street absorbing leftover supply. Though Thursday’s 30-year auction was decent, not spectacular, given the recent selloff, decent is the new bar and the result pulled long yields off their highest levels in more than two decades. Two solid long-end auctions in one week argue that 5.25% to 5.60% yields are drawing patient capital.
Sentiment appears to have grown extremely negative, and when everyone is on one side of the boat, a local top in yields becomes increasingly likely (no guarantees, obviously). But there’s always a ‘but.’ The limit on a real long-end rally is still the Federal Reserve (Fed), and minutes out Wednesday confirmed a unanimous quarter-point hike in September and a majority looking for another move before year-end. Markets are currently priced for another hike by December, with three more by next July. As long as another hike is the base case, the long end can bounce on auction relief and short covering, but it will struggle to sustain a rally. That changes only if the data forces the Fed off that path.
Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex traded higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures posted a modest weekly gain, continuing to march higher as mounting supply risks outweighed some relief that the Pentagon is not planning a fresh round of attacks before early November. After some recent green shoots in Mideast shipping data, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined as maritime agencies flagged a series of attacks on vessels. On the homefront, Hurricane Isaias forced producers to shut in an estimated 1.3 million barrels per day in the Gulf of Mexico as of Thursday. In precious metals, gold prices rose as strong Treasury auctions and a weekly gain for U.S. bonds gave buyers some breathing room. Copper outperformed on persistent demand and supply challenges from a Chilean mine strike and recent tariff headlines. The U.S. dollar strengthened, supported by continued market pricing of another Fed rate hike before 2027 and further weakness in the euro.
Economic Weekly Roundup
The economic calendar was relatively quiet, with the main highlight being the preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment report dipping to a five-month low as views of the economy deteriorated on elevated energy prices and borrowing costs. Markets also noted a slight uptick in services costs from Monday’s release of the ISM Services Index. Outside of data releases, crude futures edging higher kept inflationary pressure in focus. Elevated oil prices are feeding directly into headline inflation and inflation expectations, illustrated by September’s eurozone inflation showing prices rose 3.8% from a year ago. This puts the region’s inflation further above target than in the U.S.
Oil prices remain highly sensitive to any White House comments suggesting progress with Iran, and while energy prices could fall quickly once the conflict ends, services inflation could remain higher. Corporate earnings are absorbing significant fuel-cost pressure, and airlines are just one example. Delta Airlines (DAL) executives cut guidance this week and warned that fares will rise if fuel prices stay high. Higher fares would put a strain on discretionary spending.
The Week Ahead
The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:
- Monday: No economic releases scheduled
- Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sep), ADP Weekly Employment Change (Sep 26), Existing Home Sales (Sep), Federal Budget Balance (Sep)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 9), Real Average Weekly Earnings (Sep), Headline and Core CPI (Sep), Real Average Hourly Earnings (Sep), Fed Beige Book release
- Thursday: Retail Sales (Sep), Empire Manufacturing (Oct), Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Oct), Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 10), Continuing Claims (Oct 3), Headline and Core PPI (Sep), Business Inventories (Aug)
- Friday: New York Fed Services Activity (Oct), Import and Export Price Indexes (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep), Manufacturing Production (Sep), Capacity Utilization (Sep), Total Net TIC Flows (Aug), Net Long-term TIC Flows (Aug)
Important Disclosures
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.
Asset Class Disclosures –
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.
Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.
Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.
Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.
Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.
High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.
Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.
The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
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